As reported in David Akin’s blog yesterday, and everywhere else this morning, a staggering 230 – or is 300?.. or more than 300? – cars drove across the Canadian border without being stopped and searched in the last six months.
The most quoted comment comes from Liberal Senator Tommy Banks, who said “”I think most Canadians would be surprised, shocked and unhappy to learn that 300 vehicles in a half a year drive across the border and aren’t stopped and somehow get away with it.”
Personally I think that most Canadians are smart enough to see this as pure unadulterated scaremongering.
The number 230 (300 cars, 70 of which were caught by police) is meaningless unless you know how many cars cross the border in six months.
If you missed 230 cars out of say 1000, then yes, you have a significant problem.
If you missed 230 cars out of a million you might think that this is not a big concern.
There were actually 70 million border crossings last year. Which means that .00086% of cars are crossing illegally. And many of them are reportedly not terrorists, just confused tourists making a wrong turn.
Risk assessment is about finding a balance, determining what is a reasonable level of risk, not about eliminating every possible risk in all circumstances.
If the senators involved are “shocked” and “infuriated” by this, then surely they should also be up in arms about several even more dangerous threats to Canadian lives – like drowning, which offers a 1 in 83,000 chance of killing you, or being killed while walking as pedestrian, which offers a 1 in 43,000 chance.
As inflammatory as these Senators may be, we also need to look at the media. How did they describe this infinitesimal problem?
Toronto Star: Senators aghast vehicles cross border unchecked
National Post: Undefended border offers little impediment to illegal crossings
Toronto Sun: Most ‘port-runners’ elude capture
Globe and Mail: Hmmm… doesn’t seem to be there.
Of the papers listed only the Sun bothered to mention the total number of crossings each year.
Kudos though to the Calgary Sun for the rather more sensible headline: Fleeing traffic miffs border experts